Saturday, April 23, 2005
NBA Round 1 Predictions
Now that the MVP debate has been settled, it's actually Saturday and all I'm going to be watching is Round 1 of the NBA playoffs, where the games will be intense and last about 5 picks of the NFL draft.
Round 1 in the East
1 Miami vs. 8 New Jersey
I think this has been a trendy upset pick, and it picks up steam since Shaq is gimped and the rest of the Heat besides Wade are simply not playoff material. On the flip side, Kidd and Vince have been absolutely gunning, there's a chance that Richard Jefferson will be replacing the likes of Rodney Buford, and though I haven't seen the Nets play lately, I still think they've got the Brian Scalabrine X factor.
It's almost enough to make pick them. I'm just concerned about that whole Krstic and Jason Collins 2 headed beast matchup against Shaq, even if he's on one leg. Heat in 6
2 Detroit vs. 7 Philadelphia
This one has all the makings of a slaughter, unless Iverson shoots 60%, Webber rounds into 2001 form, or Iguodala turns into Wade-Lite overnight. The Pistons have won something like 11 in a row, they're also the defending champions, and this one will go 5 at most. Pistons in 5
3 Boston vs. 6 Indiana
Only a homer would pick Boston in 5, which just so happens to be Simmons's downfall in a lot of his columns. Hell, he picked Boston to make the Finals in 2002.
Boston simply isn't that good. If Jermaine O'Neal has himself rounded into form by any point in this series, Indiana will certainly win more than 1 game. Simmons berates Anthony Johnson, who averaged 13/4/6 in April, as if Tinsley was the second coming of Stockton.
It'll take some vintage Paul Pierce escapades for the Celtics to win this series, unless Toine stops laying bricks. Other than those 2, who else should the Pacers be concerned about? Ricky Davis? Maybe if you're like Simmons, who called him the 35th Most Valuable Player this year and a "revelation."
I was originally going to take the Pacers in 6. But the fact that they have STEVE JACKSON to me means that they will drop an extra game. Pacers in 7
4 Chicago vs. 5 Washington
This should just be a high scoring shootout series between two upstart teams with no playoff experience. I don't know how big a factor Curry's fat lazy ass would have been in this series, or the rookie Deng for that matter. But I'm definitely not going to pick the Bulls to win shootouts against Gilbert Grape Arenas, Larry Hughes and Tawn Jamison. Wizards in 6
Round 1 in the West
When the seedings locked into place this past week, I looked at the pairings and said to myself that it wouldn't surprise me if 7 of those teams won their first round.
1 Phoenix vs. 8 Memphis
Memphis was not 1 of the 7. Suns in 5
2 San Antonio vs. 7 Denver
This is probably the strongest Round 1 matchup. If any team's got enough frontcourt resources to impede Duncan, it's Denver's KMart, Bamby and Nene, assuming they can all stay healthy.
But then there's the other Nuggets. Maybe Carmelo "I'll put money on their motherfucking brains" Anthony can keep his head screwed on for 7 more games and play decently, but would you bet on it? I still don't know what happened to Andre Miller over the last 3 years, and are the Nuggets really running DerMarr Johnson at 2?
Spurs will have just enough to hold the Nuggets off. Spurs in 7
3 Seattle vs. 6 Sacramento
When I heard Peja was gimped, I thought to myself that I would go with Sacramento if they were healthy.
But then I remembered Peja's playoff career. If it was possible, Peja would be shooting a negative %, and I still credit Peja with the worst shot in a big game that I have ever seen when he airballed that wide open triple in Game 7 against the Lakers in the WCF. That thing looked like a goddam banana corner kick in soccer, except it was travelling away from the goal. Just brutal.
So with that settled, Peja's injury no longer concerned me. And since it's Ridnour vs. Bibby at the point, it's going to be impossible for me to pick the Sonics. Kings in 7
4 Dallas vs. 5 Houston
This is apparently a pretty strong matchup too. Except Dallas has Dirk Nowitzki, who is the best player in the series. Frankly, I think it's going to be unsightly to watch Yao Ming get pushed around by Erick Dampier for 6 games. Does anyone remember when Jim Gray was interviewing Yao and told him it was Barkley's birthday? Yao turned to the camera and said "Happy Boofday Charwes." I just can't get that picture out of my head.
Finley trying to guard McGrady is going to be a hell of a sight...just not as much as watching Weatherspoon try to guard Dirk. Mavs in 5
Tomorrow I'll finish out the playoffs.