Bloggystyle -- The Greatest

As I mentioned yesterday, I'm going to be quite bored by this oh so predictable Round 2, which I predicted about a month ago anyway. The Conference Finals and Finals should be more interesting though.

Eastern Conference Finals

Way back when, I said the Pistons would beat the Pacers in 5 and the Heat would beat the Wizards in 5. Of course, everyone has picked the Pistons and the Heat to play in the ECF.

But agreements end there. Despite the fact that Shaq has been gimpy the last month, despite the fact Shaq has only put up 20/10 this year, despite the fact that the Pistons easily handled a better Lakers team last year, and despite the fact that the Pistons have a big that can spread the floor (Sheed), people are still picking the Heat to beat the Pistons.

People have said the Pistons bench is worse than last year. They lost Mike James and gained McDyess. I'm not saying McDyess is a worldbeater, but Mike James wasn't worth enough for even the Bucks to keep around. Besides, their role players accomplish their task, which is to do nothing but play strong defense.

Moreover, Miami of this year reminds me of Indiana from the year before. A team that went from a lower seed to winning the top seed in the East, but they lack deep postseason experience. Outside of Shaq, those guys have gone no further than an Eastern semi (much like the Pacers nucleus before last year's ECF run, besides Reggie). This team, like Indy last year, has bigger starpower than the Pistons, but that's about it.

Pistons in 6

Western Conference Finals

I originally picked the Suns to beat the Mavs in 6, although after last night it looks more like 4 or 5. I also picked the Spurs in 6 over the Kings, which clearly seemed like a bit too much for the Kings, let alone the Sonics. The Spurs will probably win the first 3 against Seattle, lose Game 4 and then ice it in Game 5.

That leads us to Phoenix against San Antonio. If I had picked the Conference Finals before Round 1, I'd have picked San Antonio in 6. My DET/MIA pick hasn't been changed by what I've seen in the playoffs so far (despite Miami being 5-0 and being better than I expected thanks to Damon Jones and Keyon Dooling).

But after all that talk about how Phoenix's lack of defense and the inevitable slower tempo in the playoffs, the doubters haven't been proven correct yet. Both the Grizzlies and the Mavs (for a game) have been sucked into the high tempo. Dallas might not be able to escape it since it's actually suitable for them: they're just not as good at it as Phoenix. In addition, Phoenix can still score in the half court.

Like I said before (to much criticism), Phoenix's ability to put up 110+ points has lasted into the playoffs so far. D'Antoni's small ball and Phoenix's defense won't make a difference if they can continue to score like that.

Against the Spurs, though, I don't think they can do that in a 7 game series. The Spurs will not play that tempo (except for doses of Parker here and there), and the Spurs have the bigs to deal with Marion and Stoudemire. I do think that Phoenix's offense is good enough to win some games, and San Antonio does seem to have at least one lapse per playoff series, so I now think it'll go 7, but I don't think Phoenix has the experience or saavy to win a closeout game against the Spurs.

Spurs in 7.