Bloggystyle -- The Greatest

So the NBA Finals (finally) start tonight, and everyone's put in their opinions pretty much.

I correctly predicted the winner of every series but the Sonics/Kings, half of them by the right number of games. But this is probably the toughest series to accurately predict, for a few reasons.

At this point I guess I'll break down each matchup.

Chauncey Billups vs. Mr. Longoria

Most people give the edge here to Billups. I think it's more of a wash than anything else. Billups, while being a Finals MVP, is generally regarded as a clutch player, but I think he's simply inconsistent. There's a reason he's been bounced around before finding Detroit: he's not particularly quick, he's a streaky shooter, he's not particularly effective as a ballhandler, penetrator (nh) or passer. The past few years Rip's actually averaged within 2-3 assists of Chauncey. And Chauncey might hit big shots in big games because his 8 TO performances like Game 3 are what get the Pistons in trouble.

Meanwhile, Mr. Longoria is regarded as a super fast penetrator (nh again) who can be knocked off his game if he gets pushed around. He's a streaky shooter and San Antonio's offense basically revolves around Duncan/Ginobili playmaking anyway. I'm calling this matchup a wash.

Rip vs. Bowen and Prince vs. Ginobili

This isn't really a matchup that can be analyzed, since Bowen is a forward matched up defensively on Rip, whereas Detroit will put Curious George Prince on Manu for the same reason. So I think these two should be factored in together, more than anything, and I'd give the Pistons a slight edge, since Prince can score when necessary.

Duncan and Nazr vs. The Wallaces

Duncan's gimped but has played well regardless. Nazr, as every NBA fan knows, was a total steal, basically swapped for Malik Rose. Ben Wallace almost cost the Pistons the series with his terrible play, but he's not stuck with Shaq in the paint anymore. And nobody knows which Sheed will show up when. For some reason the Pistons never force feed his post offense; it's no wonder they go on 6 minute droughts so frequently.

Since I don't know if Sheed will always guard Duncan, I put these together and give a slight edge to the Pistons.

Benches

San Antonio's clearly got the better bench. The Pistons bring in McDyess, who will have a much tougher series because San Antonio's bigs, unlike Shaq, will actually come out on picks and screens to guard his jumpers. Hunter is simply a horrible shooter, which happened right in the middle of the 2000-2001 season with the Bucks (and cost us the Eastern Conference Finals in the process). Once in awhile they'll bring Hunter in to foul harass Parker and Ginobili.

The Spurs have the indomitable Big Shot Bob Horry, Bones Barry, Beno Udrih and maybe even Big Dog. In addition to all that alliteration, the bench is actually serviceable on both ends of the floor. If Barry keeps hitting shots, the bench will be a nice factor.

Prediction

I gave the Pistons a sizable edge among the starting 5. The Spurs only advantage is a bench that has been inconsistent (and in flux) all season.

So why am I picking the Spurs in 6? A few tangibles:

The Pistons have a bad habit of waiting til their backs are against the wall before they start playing well. San Antonio has a mindnumbing lapse in every series as well, a weird habit itself. But their homecourt advantage will allow for this lapse. In otherwords, these inconsistencies should ensure that the Spurs will get the series back to San Antonio after the 3 middle games in Detroit. While I think Detroit will get one of the first two, I don't think there's any question that San Antonio will get it back in Detroit.

So here is my game by game prediction:

Game 1: San Antonio
Game 2: Detroit
Game 3: Detroit
Game 4: San Antonio
Game 5: San Antonio
Game 6: San Antonio

Thus, Game 2 is San Antonio's lapse, Detroit will play well when they're in trouble (Game 2), Detroit will lapse in Game 4, and since I believe San Antonio is a more complete team than anything Detroit has seen in months, they'll get the last 2, with a very close Game 6.

Although the Pistons won their series against the Heat, the fact that they barely survived against a team with two gimped stars and role players was enough to convince me that San Antonio can take their title.